Probability: LLN and Bayes

Probability: Interactive Demo

Law of Large Numbers

Bayes' Theorem

Flip a coin and watch the running proportion of heads converge to 0.5.

Speed:

Flips: 0 | Proportion of heads: —

Adjust the prior, sensitivity, and specificity to see how the posterior changes.

Prior P(D): 1/10000
Sensitivity P(T|D): 99%
Specificity P(T|D̄): 0.5%

P(D|T) = —